Analysis of Catastrophes and Their Public Health Consequences : Descriptions, Predictions, and Aggregation of Expert Judgment Supporting Science Policy
https://libcat.nshealth.ca/en/permalink/provcat45628
Paolo F. Ricci.
--Cham:
Springer
, c2020.
- Available Online
- View e-Book
- Location
- Online
Public health policy prospectively and retrospectively addresses the consequences of events ranging from the commonplace to the catastrophic. Informing policymakers and stakeholders by enhancing their understanding of complex causation to justify remedial or precautionary actions is a critical science-policy task. In this book, the key aspects of catastrophes (regardless of their nature) and routine events are identified through a common framework for their analyses, and the analyses of the con…
- Available Online
- View e-Book
- Author
- Ricci, Paolo F.
- Responsibility
- Paolo F. Ricci
- Place of Publication
- Cham
- Publisher
- Springer
- Date of Publication
- c2020
- Physical Description
- 1 online resource (xxii, 187 p.) : 53 illus., 24 illus. in color
- ISBN
- 9783030480660
- 9783030480653 (Print ed.)
- 9783030480677 (Print ed.)
- 9783030480684 (Print ed.)
- Subjects (MeSH)
- Disasters
- Forecasting
- Policy Making
- Public Health
- Specialty
- Disaster Medicine
- Health Planning
- Abstract
- Public health policy prospectively and retrospectively addresses the consequences of events ranging from the commonplace to the catastrophic. Informing policymakers and stakeholders by enhancing their understanding of complex causation to justify remedial or precautionary actions is a critical science-policy task. In this book, the key aspects of catastrophes (regardless of their nature) and routine events are identified through a common framework for their analyses, and the analyses of the consequences associated with the potential occurrence of these events also are discussed. The book is not about disaster planning; instead, it is focused on analysis and causation in the context of informing – rather than formulating – public health policy. The author aggregates and fuses scientific information and knowledge in public health policy-science using alternative but complementary methods. The book first focuses on the analysis of catastrophes and commonplace events; the focus then shifts to causal models of multifactorial diseases, particularly at low doses or dose-rates, associated with these events. Topics explored among the chapters include: Policy and Legal Aspects of Precautionary Choices Catastrophes, Disasters, and Calamities: Concepts for Their Assessment Uncertainty: Probabilistic and Statistical Aspects Aggregating Judgments to Inform Precautionary Decision-making The aim of the book is to show that the analyses of events are fundamentally similar, regardless of whether the concern is a global catastrophe or commonplace. Analysis of Catastrophes and Their Public Health Consequences is a text that should engage students, instructors, and researchers in public health, science policy, and preparedness research, as well as serve as a useful resource for policy analysts, practitioners, and risk managers.
- Contents
- 1. Black Swans, Dragon-Kings, and Other Catastrophes: Caught Between Infinitesimals and Googols -- 2. Policy and Legal Aspects of Precautionary Choices -- 3. Catastrophes, Disasters, and Calamities: Concepts for Their Assessment -- 4. Catastrophic Incidents: Critical Information and Knowledge -- 5. Uncertainty: Probabilistic and Statistical Aspects -- 6. Preferences, Choices and Probabilistic Dominance: An Overview -- 7. Heterogeneous and Uncertain Knowledge: Beyond Probabilities -- 8. Aggregating Judgments to Inform Precautionary Decision-making.
- Format
- e-Book
- Location
- Online
Boom bust and echo 2000 : profiting from the demographic shift in the 21st century
https://libcat.nshealth.ca/en/permalink/provcat22259
Foot, David K.
--Toronto, ON:
Footwork Consulting Inc.
, 2004.
- Call Number
- HN 103.5 F687b 2004
- Location
- Halifax Infirmary
- Call Number
- HN 103.5 F687b 2004
- Author
- Foot, David K
- Other Authors
- Stoffman, Daniel
- Place of Publication
- Toronto, ON
- Publisher
- Footwork Consulting Inc.
- Date of Publication
- 2004
- Physical Description
- 313 p.
- ISBN
- 1551990296
- Subjects (MeSH)
- Social Conditions - Canada
- Economics - Canada
- Demography - Canada
- Population Dynamics - Canada
- Forecasting
- Format
- Book
- Location
- Halifax Infirmary
- Loan Period
- 3 weeks
Complexity for clinicians
https://libcat.nshealth.ca/en/permalink/provcat21978
Holt, Tim A.
--Oxford, England:
Radcliffe Publishing
, 2004.
- Call Number
- WB 102 C737 2004
- Location
- Halifax Infirmary
- Call Number
- WB 102 C737 2004
- Author
- Holt, Tim A
- Place of Publication
- Oxford, England
- Publisher
- Radcliffe Publishing
- Date of Publication
- 2004
- Physical Description
- 169 p.
- ISBN
- 1857758552
- Subjects (MeSH)
- Nonlinear Dynamics
- Decision Theory
- Forecasting - methods
- Clinical Medicine
- Format
- Book
- Location
- Halifax Infirmary
- Loan Period
- 3 weeks
Future health : a view of the horizon
https://libcat.nshealth.ca/en/permalink/provcat53425
Institute for Health Care Facilities of the Future.
--Montréal, PQ:
Abbott Labs, Limited
, 1987.
- Call Number
- WA 100 F94 1987
- Location
- IWK Health Sciences Library
- Call Number
- WA 100 F94 1987
- Corporate Author
- Institute for Health Care Facilities of the Future
- Place of Publication
- Montréal, PQ
- Publisher
- Abbott Labs, Limited
- Date of Publication
- 1987
- Physical Description
- 105 p.in various pagings : ill.
- Subjects (MeSH)
- Delivery of Health Care - statistics & numerical data
- Forecasting
- Health Services - statistics & numerical data
- Format
- Book
- Location
- IWK Health Sciences Library
- Copies
- 1
- Loan Period
- 2 weeks
The Last Natural Man : Where Have We Been and Where Are We Going?
https://libcat.nshealth.ca/en/permalink/provcat41414
Robert A. Norman, Sharad P. Paul.
--Cham:
Springer
, 2017.
- Available Online
- View e-Book
- Location
- Online
This book describes a paradigm shift for all of humanity: we are at a point where we may be the last generation that is still partially or fully natural. We are often balancing on the precipice between science and science fiction, now ready to tip the scales and slide comfortably into the future of great discoveries and wonderful changes. Many crucial and important questions are addressed in the pages of this book, including: What are the true medical and social problems facing us? Which are th…
- Available Online
- View e-Book
- Author
- Norman, Robert A.
- Other Authors
- Paul, Sharad P.
- Responsibility
- Robert A. Norman, Sharad P. Paul
- Place of Publication
- Cham
- Publisher
- Springer
- Date of Publication
- 2017
- Physical Description
- 1 online resource (x, 126 pages) : 7 illus., 6 illus. in color
- ISBN
- 9783319422176
- 9783319422152 (print ed.)
- Subjects (MeSH)
- Anthropology
- Biological Evolution
- Forecasting
- Medicine - trends
- Abstract
- This book describes a paradigm shift for all of humanity: we are at a point where we may be the last generation that is still partially or fully natural. We are often balancing on the precipice between science and science fiction, now ready to tip the scales and slide comfortably into the future of great discoveries and wonderful changes. Many crucial and important questions are addressed in the pages of this book, including: What are the true medical and social problems facing us? Which are the highest value targets we need to focus on to ensure our best route of success? How can we protect our futures and enhance our lives by understanding what it means to be the "last natural humans" to roam this planet? The Last Natural Man combines a fascination with the history of medicine, evolutionary biology, and medical anthropology and mix it with modern medicine and science to investigate how we evolved and where we are headed. The overall result is a clear and engaging guidebook for navigating the often confusing and cloudy waters of the future of medicine and our life on Earth.
- Contents
- 1. A History of Disease and Human Invention -- 2. Germs, Genes and Geography -- 3. Is Aging a Disease? -- 4. Vaccines and Prevention -- 5. The Future of Disease: Evolution and Ecology -- 6. Acute vs. Chronic Illness: How Do We Decide What to Treat or Eliminate? -- 7. The Last Natural Brain -- 9. The New Creationists -- 10. The Replaceable You -- 11. Sensing the Future -- 12. Moving On -- 13. The Last Chapter -- Epilogue.
- Format
- e-Book
- Location
- Online
Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting
https://libcat.nshealth.ca/en/permalink/provcat43971
Tommy Bengtsson, Nico Keilman, editors.
--Cham:
SpringerOpen
, c2019.
- Available Online
- View e-Book
- Access
- Open access
- Location
- Online
This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factor…
- Available Online
- View e-Book
- Other Authors
- Bengtsson, Tommy
- Keilman, Nico
- Responsibility
- Tommy Bengtsson, Nico Keilman, editors
- Place of Publication
- Cham
- Publisher
- SpringerOpen
- Date of Publication
- c2019
- Physical Description
- 1 online resource (xi, 349 p.) : 110 illus., 29 illus. in color
- Series
- Demographic Research Monographs, a series of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
- Series Title
- Demographic research monographs
- ISBN
- 9783030050757
- 9783030050740 (Print ed.)
- 9783030050764 (Print ed.)
- ISSN
- 1613-5520
- Subjects (MeSH)
- Data Interpretation, Statistical
- Forecasting - methods
- Life Expectancy
- Mortality
- Population Dynamics
- Specialty
- Public Health
- Abstract
- This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.".
- Contents
- 1. Introduction -- Part I. Current Practice -- 2. Life Expectancy Is Taking Center Place in Modern National Pension Schemes – A New Challenge for the Art of Projecting Mortality -- 3. Experiences from Forecasting Mortality in Finland -- 4. Mortality Projections in Norway -- 5. Mortality Assumptions for Sweden. The 2000–2050 Population Projection -- 6. Forecasting Life Expectancy: The SCOPE Approach -- 7. Mortality Forecasts. Comments on How to Improve Existing Models – An Epidemiologist’s Perspective -- 8. The Need for Looking Far Back in Time When Predicting Future Mortality Trends -- Part II Probabilistic Models -- 9. Erroneous Population Forecasts -- 10. Remarks on the Use of Probabilities in Demography and Forecasting -- 11. An Expert Knowledge Approach to Stochastic Mortality Forecasting in the Netherlands -- 12. Stochastic Forecasts of Mortality, Population and Pension Systems -- Part III. The Linear Rise in Life Expectancy: History and Prospects -- 13. The Linear Rise in the Number of Our Days -- 14. Mortality Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy Trends -- 15. Forecasting Life Expectancy: A Statistical Look at Model Choice and Use of Auxiliary Series -- 16. Life Expectancy Convergence Among Nations Since 1820: Separating the Effects of Technology and Income -- 17. Linear Increase in Life Expectancy: Past and Present -- Part IV. Causes of Death -- 18. How Useful Are the Causes of Death When Extrapolating Mortality Trends. An Update -- 19. Forecasting Life Expectancy and Mortality in Sweden – Some Comments on Methodological Problems and Potential Approaches -- 20. How Analysis of Mortality by Cause of Death Is Currently Influencing UK Forecasts -- Part V. Cohort Factors: How Conditions in Early Life Influence Mortality Later in Life -- 21. A Life Course Perspective to the Modern Secular Mortality Decline and Socioeconomic Differences in Morbidity and Mortality in Sweden -- 22. Early Life Events and Later Life Health: Twin and Famine Studies -- 23. The Month of Birth: Evidence for Declining but Persistent Cohort Effects in Lifespan -- 24. Early-Life Conditions and Old-Age Mortality in a Comparative Perspective: Nineteenth Century Sweden and Belgium.
- Access
- Open access
- Format
- e-Book
- Location
- Online
